I have to retort to Jim's bottom in the housing market.

First, lets start off by saying how many times has Jim called a bottom in housing stocks, or said to buy them since 2005?  It's got to be at least 20 or 30 times at least if you count the lightning rounds. 

This time he might actually be right.

Let's face facts.  There will be a place for homebuilders in the future.  There will always be some market for new homes.  However, I don't envision it to be quite the same as Jim.  The builders that survive, will be profitable again, and they will spend the next several years in runoff mode paying down debt.  There will be no growth or momentum in these names, and people will probably lose a lot of money trying to buy and hold them when they grow frustrated enough.

Eventually, they will shrink their business and manage them in such a way they can do this even in a declining economy and housing market.  Therefore there is no real way to judge the bottom in housing via the homebuilder stocks.

Anyways, it doesn't matter what really happens.  As Jim's counter gets closer to zero he will spin and change his thesis to make it correct, and declare victory.  If he can't salvage a victory, he'll probably blame the fed.

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ADDING:
Don Harrold's video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgPzZJCTSLE